Week 3: Packers @ Seahawks - Two guys predictions

On Monday, September 24th, 2012, one of the best teams from the 2011 NFL season comes marching into CenturyLink Field with a 1-1 record and a (many would argue) justified expectation that they will win their matchup with the home underdogs, the oft-forgotten Seahawks from South Alaska. Despite the fact that their record last year was 15-1, despite the fact that they have the best quarterback in the league, and despite the fact that their franchise has won 4 Superbowl Rings in 5 opportunities, the Green Bay Packers are a mere 3 point favorites over the Seahawks, who've never won a Superbowl and who have spent two years with a losing 7-9 record. After the jump I'll give you a few good reasons why the Seahawks just might pull out an upset and send the Packers to a losing record with two losses against NFC West opponents.
SEAHAWKS

Marshawn Lynch. Lets not kid ourselves, Lynch is the key to the Seahawks offense and the key to this game. This is a run oriented team and he is IMO just coming into his own as a true feature back in this league. Our offensive line is much better at run blocking than pass blocking. He can't be taken down by the first tackler. And with the Packers knowing all this in advance, you can be damn sure they are going to be game planning for Mr. Lynch, to the benefit of one Russell Carrington Wilson. That being said lets get to my predictions for our offense in this game.

I can see Wilson completing 21/30 passes for 195 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. With Lynch being the focus of the defense Russell will try to go vertical a little more, which will result in both his two touchdowns and his one interception, which I can see being the result of pressure from the pass rush and trying to force a long throw downfield. I predict Marshawn will rush 24 times for 130 yards and 1 TD. Its not a stretch to believe that Lynch will rush for well over 100 yards; last year of his 6 games in which he rushed for 100+, 5 of them came at home, and Green Bay does not have a very strong rush defense.

The pass protection in this game will be somewhere between weeks 1 and 2 in terms of quality. Not as bad as in Arizona, not as good as last week against the Cowboys. Russell will face pressure, I don't see the Packers making the mistake that Dallas made in not sending enough on the blitz. I can see Clay Matthews getting a sack and the Packers getting 2 or 3 sacks as a team. As a result of pressure up the middle I predict and hope that Bevell is going to plan for lots of play actions and bootlegs for Russell Wilson to get him out of the pocket and give him the option to run if the protection breaks down. I see Sidney Rice being our leading receiver on the day with Golden Tate also making some big plays.

PACKERS

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the game right now. He is the true definition of a "franchise quarterback". And yet, he is human and surprisingly easy to game plan for. The Green Bay offense is not terribly complicated; throw the ball, throw the ball, then throw the ball. We know that the Seahawks defense is staunch against the run, the team is currently 2nd in the league for rushing yards allowed. What we also know is that the defense is even tougher against opposing WRs and the passing game, with one of the best and youngest secondaries in the league. I think the key for the game is that our pass rush will generate pressure on Rodgers all game, and acquire 3 sacks; one from each Bruce Irvin, Chris Clemons, and Jason Jones.

I predict Rodgers completing 33/45 passes for 270 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. The interceptions will come as a result of pressure from the defensive line and the physical bump and run play from the cornerbacks. The Green Bay receivers will not be able to routinely follow their routes, which disrupts the timing of the passing game. I can see an interception for each Brandon Browner and Kam Chancellor. In addition the crowd noise from the 12th man in CenturyLink Field will not allow Rodgers to communicate with his line or his receivers on the line of scrimmage, causing false starts and stopping the audible.

The Seahawks defensive line will also stop the already tepid Green Bay running game. Cedric Benson is neither a burner nor is he as tough of a back as Lynch. Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane will have no problem stuffing the middle of the field and forcing Benson to the outside where KJ Wright and Leroy Hill will be waiting. Benson will run 17 times for 57 yards and 0 TDs. The lack of a threat on the ground will allow the Seattle defense to focus on reading Aaron Rodgers and defending the pass. I can see Green Bay throwing more check down passes as a result of no one being open down field. The GB offensive line will be confused by the various defensive fronts that the Seahawks use (as demonstrated in this article) and as a result Jermichael Finley will be forced to stay as a blocker more than they would like.

Things to consider:
Seattle has the best record in the league on Monday Night Football. Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in the league. Green Bay has virtually no run game. The Green Bay defense could be called "porous". One of the leagues best passing offenses vs one of the league's best secondaries. So far, the Packer pass rush looks potent.

Keys for Seattle: Don't allow Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball without pressure. Play physical bump & run coverage against receivers, and don't allow separation. Allow Beastmode to run wild.

Keys for Green Bay: Stack the box against Lynch. Bring 4+ pass rushers as often as possible. Try unconventional run plays to confuse the defensive line.

Final Score: Seattle 24 - Green Bay 17

Taylor's Take

My friend Taylor has a slightly different take. First, see how Taylor sees the statistical breakdown. Russell Wilson will throw 35 times, complete 25 passes for 255 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Marshawn Lynch will rush 25 times for 145 yards and 2 scores. Aaron Rodgers throws 52 passes, completing 35 of them for 295 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Cedric Benson only rushes 16 times for 45 yards and no scores. Taylor also believes that the Seattle defense will both put pressure on Aaron Rodgers AND shut down the passing game to a certain extent. He also believes that this will lead to two interceptions, though Taylor predicts that we will also be able to strip Rodgers on a sack for a fumble recovery. In addition, Leon Washington will return a punt 75 yards for a TD. Wilson or Lynch will be offensive MVPs and Clemons or Earl Thomas will be defensive MVPS.

Final Score: Seattle 35 - Green Bay 20

Lets look at the stats and see where we agree and disagree.

	Aaron	Taylor
Seahawks
Passes	21/30	25/35
Yards	195	255
TD	2	2
INT	1	0
YPA	6.5	7.3
Rating	116.2	135.8
Carries	24	25
Yards	130	145
TD	1	2
YPC	5.4	5.8
Packers
Passes	33/45	35/52
Yards	270	295
TD	2	2
INT	2	2
YPA	6	5.6
Rating	95.7	97
Carries	17	16
Yards	57	45
TD	0	0
YPC	3.3	2.8

Both of see Wilson throwing two touchdowns and Marshawn rushing for around 25 carries for a very good YPC of mid to high 5s. We agree more when it comes to the Packers offensive production, with the thought that while Rodgers will throw tons of passes, and for lots of yards, he will be forced into mistakes. Also, they will not try to feature the running game much, and not much will be gained from the few rushes Benson does get. 

Where we disagree is that Taylor sees this as the week that Russell puts it all together and is able to effectively throw the ball downfield. While I would LOVE for this to happen, I don't see it this week. We are still a run based offense and are facing a defense who's main weakness is against the run. Wilson will get a decent amount of throws to make, but will be held to throwing relatively short passes mostly in the slot to Golden Tate or to Zach Miller/Anthony McCoy. I can't see much in terms of long passes, especially considering that we don't have anyone with true #1 WR speed for separation. 

I, and many other 12th men and women, wouldn't be surprised to see the Seahawks pull off the relatively minor upset tomorrow at CenturyLink Field. If they do it will be because they stuck to their strengths and played physical pass defense and hit the ball carriers HARD. On offense, they need to pound the ball at the defense until they break and the dripping leak turns into a gush. Russell Wilson needs to minimize mistakes, keep the defense off of the field, and try to avoid Clay Matthews and the rest of the GB pass rush.