The New England secondary is not all that good. Its not necessarily one of the worst units in the NFL, but its far from the best (Seattle). Therefore I see this fact, along with Darrell Bevell opening up the playbook for Russell Wilson, leading to the rookie having his best passing day of the year thus far. The Patriots run defense is much better than pass defense, so look for Seattle to try to exploit that.
Seattle
At the start of the game look for NE to load the box to try to stop Marshawn Lynch. They do not want us to be able to establish the run early, so that they can pinhole Wilson into trying to win the game. This will open up the playbook for lots of play action to catch the defense looking, leading to long gains and extended drives for the Hawks. After we scorch them for a few long gains the safeties will drift back to assist the CBs on coverage, and the LBs will be moved from man coverage to zone coverage in the middle-range area sideline to sideline. This opens up the running lanes for Marshawn Lynch who should have good success in this game, despite the Patriots stingy run defense.
Defensively I see lots of pressure on Tom Brady in this game. Much has been made of their no huddle offense, we need the defensive line to help the secondary with that by getting consistent pressure and not allowing Tom Brady to establish a rhythm. I can see some bad throws forced by pressure, leading to 1 or 2 interceptions, with my money going to either Sherman or Chancellor being there for the pick. The New England offensive line is not very good, but Brady moves well in the pocket and senses oncoming rushers well. However I think the speed of Clemons and Irvin will be too much and one of them will get at least one sack, with another sack coming to Jason Jones or Brandon Mebane. Ridley and Bolden will both be shut down, and the Patriots will not rush for 100 yards combined between the two plus Danny Woodhead.
New England
New England will try to run the ball early to bait our safeties to the line and to hold possession. This could also be a problem if Seattle has trouble anticipating the no huddle offense, all it would take is one big draw run for a touchdown to take a lot of the power out of the 12th man. However I see Seattle holding the Patriots to a paltry rushing total in the first half. In the second quarter they will have some success passing the ball as they are in fact and elite offense with dangerous playmakers. However the halftime score will be 10-7 NE.
I'm not worried about Deion Branch, Brandon Lloyd, or even Wes Welker. The only ones I worry about are Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. If we key on one, the other will get the targets, and vice versa. I'm not sure we have the depth at CB to cover all of these options. We will need good coverage from KJ Wright, Marcus Trufant, and Jeron Johnson when he is on the field in order to stymie this offense. After the third quarter I see the score 17-13 SEA. Halftime adjustments by the Seahawks are perfect, holding the Patriots to a field goal in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, with the lead the Seahawks will be primarily running the ball down the throats of the beleaguered and beaten New England defense. New England will be desperately passing the ball and trying to get the no huddle offense (that has been mostly shut down all game) working and score. Early in the fourth the Patriots score a FG to bring them within one point of the Hawks. Until, that is, a 60 yard drive by the Hawks ending in a Marshawn Lynch touchdown.
Final Stats:
Russell Wilson 22/30 212 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Tom Brady 27/40 280 yards 1 TD 1 INT
Marshawn Lynch 23 rushes 95 yards 1 TD
Stephen Ridley 17 rushes 57 yards
Branden Bolden 14 rushes 37 yards
Golden Tate 7 catches 89 yards 1 TD
Sidney Rice 6 catches 62 yards 1 TD
Aaron Hernandez 8 catches 96 yards 1 TD
Gronkowski 6 catches 76 yards
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